Primary School Hunting Game

With Singaporeans getting married older and the total fertility rate declining, many parents with young kids want to offer their kids the best opportunities, including the best schools. Hence, when it comes to searching for a house, a common criteria is the proximity to a good primary school.

The physical proximity to the primary school is desired because it is one of the allocation rules for primary school. The Home-School Category priority is adopted in Singapore for the convenience and interest of the family and the child.  According to the Ministry of Education, if the applicant’s chosen primary school has more registrants than vacancies, priority admission will be given based on the child’s citizenship and the Home School Distance Category.

Priority admission is given in this order:

1. Singapore Citizens living within 1km of the school
2. Singapore Citizens living between 1km and 2km of the school
3. Singapore Citizens living outside 2km of the school
4. Permanent Residents living within 1km of the school
5. PRs living between 1km and 2km of the school
6. PRs living outside 2km of the school

For a child who secures a school place through the HSD category priority using a new property address, they must stay at the new address for at least 30 months starting from the time their family moves into their new home.

However, staying within 1km of the primary school may not guarantee a place in the school, due to the 5 phases of registration- Phase 1, Phase 2A, Phase 2B, Phase 2C and Phase 2C supplementary.

In 2024, a total of 38 schools were oversubscribed in Phase 2A of the Primary 1 registration exercise this year. Phase 2A registration phase is for children whose parent or sibling is a former student of the primary school, whose parent is a member of the school Advisory or management committee, whose parent is a staff member of the primary school and is from the MOE Kindergarten under the purview of and located within the primary school.

The most oversubscribed school in Phase 2A this year was Princess Elizabeth Primary School in Bukit Batok, with 142 applicants for 45 spaces. That means there were more than three applicants per vacancy. There were ten schools where balloting is needed for Singaporean children living within 1km of the school. Besides the aforementioned school, nine primary schools also require balloting for Singaporean children living within 1km of the school.

The oversubscription tends to spillover to future phases. Using Princess Elizabeth Primary School in Bukit Batok, the school received 270 applications for 41 places, meaning that about six children are vying for each spot.

Would proximity to primary school still have a premium? According to a study from NUS, they rely on the relocation of a primary school as a quasi experiment to measure the change in value of property when the school relocates.  The study found that private housing prices in 1km and 1 km-2 km zones declined by 2.9% and 6.0%, respectively, 6 months before relocations. According to the study, the effect is further amplified if the school is a popular school.

Given the competitive nature of Singaporeans school seeking behaviour, parents may want to hold more options- to have more primary schools within the 1km radius than only one school, so that they can pivot to a less subscribed school after the announcement of results in each Phase. But where are such schools?

As I peruse through the school locations using one map, I found a few interesting data points. First, the density of schools in the area seems to be correlated to the HDB estates and the age of the estate. For instance, when we look at some private projects in Punggol, a relatively young town, there are more than 5 primary schools within its 1km vicinity. A case in point is Waterbay, an executive condominium. It has 8 primary schools within 1km radius and 9 schools in the 1km-2km zone. Unless the parents are fixated with Mee Toh School, a school that was oversubscribed, they should have pretty good options.  

When I further deep dive into the demand and supply indices of Waterbay for sale (Figure 1), nothing extraordinary jumps out. However, the trend lines for the demand and supply indices of Waterbay are interesting.

Figure 1: Demand and Supply Indices for  Waterbay for Sale

The Demand Index from November to December is especially high in 2021 and 2022. If we work backwards the 30 months from the registration date, the parents need to secure the rental listing by 2 January 2022. (Figure 2)

Figure 2: Demand and Supply Indices for Waterbay for Rent

While there are confounding factors that contribute to the hikes in demand, it is interesting to note the demand coincides with the reverse engineered date. Interestingly, the demand has not picked up in 2024. That is expected as MOE requires a child who gains priority admission through their distance category must reside at the address used for registration for at least 30 months from the start of the P1 Registration Exercise.

However, there are areas where there are few or no schools within 1km. These areas often mature estates with aging populations, in areas predominantly with office areas and near natural barriers.

Homes in the CBD usually have no primary schools within 1km. A good case in point is V on Shenton. The residential properties in the CBD also have a much larger proportion of visitors from foreign origin compared to those in the suburban areas. For instance, about 87.4% of the visitors looking to rent at Waterbay have an IP address in Singapore. That proportion dropped to 75.8% for V on Shenton.

Areas within mature private estate also saw fewer schools within 1km because the demand is also likely lower, but they have a significant number of schools between 1-2km range for young households that move into the older estates.  Midwood at Hillview only has one school within 1km, although it has 6 schools between 1-2km.

Close but not too close to the sea.

Low density private housing estates that are within walking distance to the coast may also not have schools within 1km. For instance, the Wak Hassan area next to Sembawang Park. There are no primary schools within 1km nor 1-2km of Watercove, an idyllic freehold clusterhouse. Another location is the condominiums within the island of Sentosa. Seascape, a condominium within a stone throw from the sea, has no schools within 1km.

While buying a home to be close to a primary school satisfies a need and at a particular life stage, it may not be well suited as one moves into the next stage of life. As one enters adulthood, the proximity to lifestyle amenities and eateries may be more important. As one grows older, the proximity to rehabilitation centres and medical facilities become of higher priority. The area is also not static as they transform over time to meet new social and economic needs. The changes in different life stages at the broader level will further impact transport planning and housing planning, especially if more are aging in place.

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^{Reference: Sumit Agarwal, Satyanarain Rengarajan, Tien Foo Sing, Yang Yang, School Allocation Rules and Housing Prices: A Quasi-Experiment With School Relocation Events in Singapore, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Volume 58, 2016, Pages 42–56, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.02.003}‍
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